It is not about the feel-good factor

Keeping friends in the Muslim world

Covering developments in Pakistan in recent weeks, I've been struck by how many Pakistanis blame the United States for the disturbing turn their country is taking. Standing inside the gutted Islamabad Marriott late last month, some eyewitnesses saved their most bitter remarks not for the suicide bomber, but for Washington. A few believed the outrageous conspiracy theory that the CIA was behind the bombing—to justify further U.S. raids inside Pakistan, they claimed. But more saw the attack as Taliban payback for those American raids. So, by their logic, Pakistanis were again paying the price for U.S. actions unconnected to their interests. They were angry.As the military conflict in the tribal areas grows more intense, many Pakistanis see their country descending into a war that they believe is of America's making.

The situation in Pakistan demonstrates the mountain the next U.S. president has to climb in the Muslim world. America is faced with the task not only of fighting terrorists, but also of winning back a far larger segment of the population who see the United States as a greater threat than the extremists. Today, a remarkable variety of Muslims believe in a grand Western conspiracy against Islam, led by America and bent on punishing Muslims for Sept. 11, 2001. For them, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are the most pointed examples. Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib and America's continuing relationships with Middle Eastern dictatorships are also cited as evidence. Increase in Islamic fundamentalism is an enormous problem, but for many Muslims, it is American policies, not religious beliefs, that drive their anger.

And so, I hear that anger even from people we'd expect to be our allies.

But, why should U.S. care?

This is not about a feel-good factor. It's about advancing U.S. interests. Many of our most important goals in the region—from keeping young Muslims from joining extremist groups, to promoting political reform, to fighting the Taliban in Pakistan—are impossible without local support. While there are some in the Muslim world who will never be our friends and for whom military force is necessary—like the captured Al Qaeda fighters I have met—the majority of Muslims are not fundamentalists but remain convinced of America's bad intentions. They could be our friends, but today see us as a disappointment and a threat.

Pakistan has not yet requested IMF funding: official

Pakistan has not yet made a formal request to the International Monetary Fund for cash assistance to help it overcome the current economic crisis, a top finance ministry official said Thursday.

Pakistan immediately needs up to 4.5 billion dollars to deal with a balance of payments crisis, which had raised the prospect of the violence-hit country defaulting on its foreign debts.
The IMF is one of the last options Pakistan looks at before shoring up funds from multilateral donor agencies and friendly countries, but has initiated discussions with the Fund because it has a few weeks to arrange the money.

"We have not formally requested the board of IMF for a facility as of now," financial advisor Shaukat Tarin told a press conference.

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Pakistan and Belarus seek IMF aid

Pakistan sought help from the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday to avoid a possible economic meltdown brought on by high fuel prices, dwindling foreign investment and soaring violence by militants.

And Belarus has requested IMF credit to uphold stability and economic growth rates, the Belarussian central bank said Wednesday.

Pakistani officials had previously said that turning to the IMF to avoid defaulting on billions of dollars of sovereign debt due in the coming months would be a last resort.

IMF aid often comes with conditions like cutting public spending that can affect programs for the poor, making acceptance of the aid a politically tough choice for governments.

The IMF said Pakistan had requested help "to meet the balance of payments difficulties the country is experiencing." The IMF said that the amount of money sought by Pakistan had yet to be determined and that talks on the loan package would begin in a few days.

Economists in Pakistan say that as much as $5 billion is needed to avoid defaulting on sovereign debt due for repayment next year but that $8 billion more may be needed.
The country has also asked for loans from wealthy nations and multilateral agencies like the World Bank. Analysts say Pakistan will probably get that help also because of its front-line status in the battle against terrorism.

Any default would further undermine local and international confidence in the Pakistani government and the economy at a time of intense fighting against Al Qaeda and Taliban militants near the Afghan border.

Beijing offering Pakistan a lifeline

Tough financial bind has U.S. ally
seeking bailout from China

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to help Pakistan overcome its economic troubles, Chinese state media reported yesterday. Details were not disclosed.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari was expected to seek the equivalent of $500 million or more in soft loans from its neighbour as it struggles with a financial crisis.
Wen said the countries were ready to advance their strategic relationship, a day after Zardari and President Hu Jintao signed 11 trade and economic co-operation deals.

Pakistan faces a critical balance of payments shortfall, inflation that's close to 25 per cent and has borrowed heavily from the central bank to cover a budget deficit. Analysts suggest central bank reserves are barely enough to cover two months of imports, putting Pakistan in urgent need of $3 billion to $4 billion.


Financial crisis:

Saving Pakistan comes cheap

Pakistan has timed its request for international help to perfection. In this era of multi-billion pound bailouts - with the rich world devoting perhaps £2 trillion to rescuing its devastated banks - the cost of helping out Pakistan is remarkably modest.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

President Asif Ali Zardari needs a mere £6 billion to avoid defaulting on his debts and stave off the immediate threat of bankruptcy. This sum is only 0.3 per cent of the amount now devoted to saving the global financial system.
For the amount that Britain is prepared to spend to salvage its banks - £500 billion - Pakistan could be rescued no less than 83 times over. Since the terrorist attacks on September 11, America has given Pakistan £5 billion of aid. This is barely one per cent of the £458 billion that Washington may be forced to spend on saving Wall Street.
Bereft of oil and possessing little natural wealth, Pakistan has suffered decades of economic failure and stagnation. Ten years ago, it came within a whisker of formally defaulting on its debts and declaring itself bankrupt. So the country's leaders have become perennial seekers of bailouts.

Yet for once, the stigma attached to being an international beggar has entirely disappeared. Today, almost every government is besieged by formerly well-heeled beggars - and most are seeking far larger sums than Pakistan with its 165 million people.

In this time of crisis, saving a valued ally has never seemed so cheap.

Nasim Zehra (left), an associate at the Asia Center, and Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, first secretary at the Pakistan embassy in Washington, D.C., talk and listen during the daylong conference 'The Critical Engagement: Pakistan and U.S. Relations' in the Tsai Auditorium at CGIS.

Pakistan critical to South Asia stability

Asia Center hosts U.S.-Pakistan relations conference

A top Pakistani official gave voice to the frustration the South Asian nation feels in its relations with the United States , saying that though Pakistan has been a staunch U.S. ally, the United States ignores Pakistan until its interests force its attention there. "The United States has only acted as a fire brigade: It puts out the fire and moves on," said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, chairman of the Pakistani Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.
Sayed decried the short attention span of U.S. diplomacy, saying that Pakistan was important to the United States when the Soviet army was in Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of the Soviets in the late 1980s, the United States ignored Pakistan until after the 9/11 bombings, when the nation rapidly rose on the U.S. foreign policy agenda.

Sayed was the keynote speaker for a daylong conference on Pakistan and the United States called "The Critical Engagement: Pakistan and U.S. Relations," and held at the Center for Government and International Studies. Sponsored by the Asia Center, the conference also featured several panel discussions on strategic issues, reform, the economic outlook, and future engagement.

Pakistan sees the United States as something of a "fair-weather friend," Saich said, describing the relationship between the two nations as a turbulent one that shifts along with the changing perceptions of U.S. strategic interests. Though the U.S. interest in Pakistan has shifted over time, Sayed said the two nations' interests are strongly aligned today toward peace in the region, toward winning the fight against extremist terror, and toward greater economic growth and cooperation.

Chinese premier vows to strengthen ties with Pakistan

China is ready to further advance strategic cooperation with Pakistan, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said here.

During a meeting with visiting Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Wen said China and Pakistan share common interests.

He pledged to help Pakistan overcome its economic problems by offering assistance, however, he did not specify what type of assistance China would provide.
Wen said the two countries should continue to facilitate trade and economic cooperation in a practical, efficient and orderly way.

Zardari expressed willingness to work with China to advance thetwo country's political friendship, which he said is "deeper than the sea."

This is Zardari's first overseas trip since assuming office last month. He promised Wen, during a September meeting in New York, that he would come first to China.

Zardari said ties between Pakistan and China have been fostered by several generations of leaders.

Pakistan to press India for
‘stolen’ water

Pakistan would neither drop its claim nor sell the Chenab water which India ‘stole’ in September this year.

India will have to compensate Pakistan during the coming Rabi season. Otherwise, Islamabad will resort to other treaty mechanisms to get its due share.

Pakistan has no objection now to the design of the dam, which was changed by India on recommendations of a neutral expert. But it also had to observe the filling criteria, which was not part of the treaty.

If India insists on its rights under the treaty it also has to observe its duties that exclude tampering with the Chenab flows. It is under treaty obligation to release 55,000 cusecs even when filling the lake

Pakistan looks to China as ties with US undergo strain

JUST when Pakistan’s relations with the United States are being strained, its president looks East to China. That, at least, has been how Asif Ali Zardari’s trip to Beijing this week has been portrayed by the Western media.

But Pakistan has been an ally of China for far longer than the present tiff between Islamabad and Washington over indiscriminate US attacks on Pakistani soil against al-Qaeda suspects. For decades, Pakistan and China have regarded each other as a strategic counter to their common neighbour and perceived rival, India.

And so what might seem like a political triangle in Zardari’s trip is actually part of an evolving quadrilateral. The China-Pakistan alliance predates current US attempts to use India as a buffer in an encirclement policy of a rising China, more so the current hiccup in US-Pakistan relations.
Nonetheless, the US role on both levels has added to a sense of estrangement in South Asia. The perceived rise of India has also raised the stakes, although diplomacy still prevails all-round.

Where might all this lead to?

It is far too early for Washington to lament any “loss” of Pakistan in the classic strategist’s zero-sum calculations, mainly because it never quite “won” it. While steadfastly unaligned, or multi-aligned, Pakistan never left China as a close neighbour and major source of military equipment.
Washington policy circles are currently abuzz over the content and direction of Pakistan’s new government, up to and including decoding Zardari. The present unsettling of bilateral relations only adds to the hum.

Yet in all of this, China is conspicuously absent. The United States needs no help from anyone in seeing its relations with Pakistan plummet, given how US forces continue to bomb and shoot their way through Pakistani villages bordering Afghanistan.
In reading Islamabad however, US officials would be taken by Zardari’s Beijing visit at this particular time. The trip that began yesterday can be interpreted on both symbolic and substantive levels.

Symbolically it is Zardari’s first foreign visit as president, and taken at a time of declining ties with the United States.

Although Pakistani diplomats play down this aspect by citing how China has long been a new Pakistan president’s first foreign destination, talks are also expected to centre on a new nuclear deal to mirror the US-India nuclear agreement.

More substantively, Zardari’s four-day trip is more than an extended courtesy call since talks will cover a wide range of issues. No less than six key ministries or government agencies number in the entourage, from finance and the interior (home ministry) to defence and foreign affairs.

Bilateral trade in the first three quarters of this year alone more than tripled to US$7bil (RM24.5bil) compared to the whole of 2002. Both sides are optimistic enough to cite a target of US$15bil (RM52.5bil) by just 2010.

A joint declaration is expected to be announced at the conclusion of talks on Friday. Both China and Pakistan are poised to take their already strong ties to an even higher level, and here the United States could be conspicuous by its absence.

Pakistan: Fashion