Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Future of Afghanistan uncertain despite new deal

The future of Afghanistan is deeply uncertain, experts said on the anniversary of the death of Osama bin Laden, as the US pledged to end combat operations in the country.

Shortly after President Barack Obama made the announcement during a surprise visit to the country on Wednesday, a car bomb exploded outside a guesthouse used by Westerners in Kabul.
Seven people were killed after attackers dressed in burqas detonated a suicide car bomb and clashed with guards at the "Green Village" compound for foreign organizations including the European Union, the United Nations and aid groups, Afghan officials said.
Kargar Noorughli, spokesman for the Afghan health ministry, said 18 people were wounded and eight admitted to a hospital.
The Taliban claimed responsibility for the assault and said it was a riposte to Obama, who declared in an address targeting domestic voters that the war was ending.
The attackers' ability to penetrate a tightened security cordon in Kabul raises fresh concerns about the resilience of the insurgency as NATO hands over responsibility for security across the country to Afghan forces and winds down its combat presence in the next two years.
"Yet here, in the pre-dawn darkness of Afghanistan, we can see the light of a new day on the horizon," Obama said, adding that he expected "a future of peace" after recalling a decade-long war since bin Laden plotted the Sept 11, 2001 attacks.
Obama flew into Kabul in secret and signed a deal with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, cementing 10 years of US aid for Afghanistan after NATO combat troops leave in 2014.
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid told AFP that Wednesday's attack "is a message to Obama that he and his forces are never welcomed in Afghanistan and that we will continue our resistance until all the occupiers are either dead or leave our country".
The assault came just over two weeks after one of the largest attacks in Kabul, where squads of militants targeted government offices, embassies and foreign bases more than 10 years after the Taliban were driven from power for refusing to hand over bin Laden.
After a war that has left nearly 3,000 US and allied troops dead, killed thousands of Afghans and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, Afghanistan's future is very uncertain, experts said.
"The war against terrorism has weakened both the national strength and soft power of the US," said Fan Jishe, a US studies expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Consequently, the Obama administration has been determined to 'fade away' from it."
The pact signed between Obama and Karzai shows that Washington will stay behind Afghanistan, "but the stability of the region depends more on whether Kabul signs a peace treaty with the Taliban and if Karzai's government is strong enough to handle security challenges," Fan told China Daily.
"Karzai's government is facing a test of its leadership," said Sun Zhe, a professor at Tsinghua University's department of international relations.
"It wants to prevent the Taliban from using peace talks to recapture the regime. And meanwhile it cannot afford the cost of another domestic war. Karzai needs to make a hard decision," Sun said.
Neighboring Pakistan has long been seen as another major concern. Its relationship with both Kabul and Washington remains mired in mistrust a year after bin Laden was found and killed by US commandos on its soil.

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