Pakistan: nuke deal to spark arms race

PAKISTAN launched a full-scale diplomatic offensive against India's nuclear deal with Washington yesterday, warning it would provoke a new atomic arms race between the two South Asia rivals and harm non-proliferation efforts.

In a move causing major concern in New Delhi, the new civilian Government in Islamabad sent a letter to more than 60 nations that are members of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, including Australia, outlining its concerns about what it sees as attempts to steamroll approval of the deal through the two bodies.
The letter addressed to more than 60 nations comes less than two weeks before the 35-nation IAEA board is expected to approve a so-called safeguards agreement setting up rules for inspecting some of India's civilian nuclear facilities.
Approval of the safeguards deal is key in India's efforts to gain access to legal imports of nuclear fuel and technology from the 45-nation NSG.
The Bush administration signed a radical deal to supply India with nuclear fuel but needs approval, first from the NSG and then the US Congress.
The NSG bans exports to nuclear weapons states like India and Pakistan that have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and do not have full safeguard agreements allowing the IAEA to inspect their facilities. But the NSG is ready to consider a waiver for India, in part due to lobbying from Washington.
Moving to block consensus and stall a process that both India and the US are seeking to expedite, Pakistan warned the deal "threatens to increase the chances of a nuclear arms race in the sub-continent".
The agreement, unveiled in 2005, will allow the US to sell nuclear plants and related technology to India once it has separated its civil and military programs and accepted a certain level of UN inspections.
Islamabad warned the deal was "likely to set a precedent for other states which are not members of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and have military nuclear programs".
Predominantly Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947.
Relations have improved considerably since the start of a peace process in 2004. But progress at the talks has been slow and deep distrust remains between the two rivals, which developed their nuclear arms in secret.
Pakistan's intervention yesterday came as a battery of New Delhi's top envoys were fanning out across the world following the Indian Government's spectacular win in a no-confidence motion in parliament this week brought by opposition parties who were against the deal.
Scores of India's most senior officials have embarked on urgent missions aimed at ensuring rapid approval of the so-called safeguards agreement by the board of the IAEA when it meets in Vienna on August 1, and the "clean exemption" agreement that is due to be rushed through the NSG immediately after that.
There is consternation in the Indian capital that the move by Pakistan - clearly aimed at appealing to those countries most concerned about nuclear proliferation, including the likes of Australia, Canada and New Zealand - could seriously upset their calculations and cause major problems in trying to get US congressional approval of the final draft of the deal before President George W.Bush leaves office.
Last night, Washington's ambassador in New Delhi, David Mulford, said the Bush administration had the ability to "persuade" Pakistan to "co-operate". There seems little doubt Islamabad's intervention will be high on the agenda when new Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani arrives in Washington next week to see Mr Bush.
Given the extent to which Pakistan is tied to Washington after receiving $10 billion in aid over the past few years, its scope for independent initiatives is considered by most analysts to be limited.
Indian hopes the Bush administration would be able to strong-arm Islamabad were boosted by a report in the The New York Times outlining plans to shift nearly $US230 million ($240million) in aid to Pakistan from counter-terrorism programs to upgrading Islamabad's ageing F-16 attack planes.