Monday, November 17, 2008


Why do U.S. security experts say Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the world? For starters, there is not one crisis in Pakistan; there are several interconnected crises, each with the potential to undermine the stability of Pakistan and South Asia. The danger of a failed state, replete with nuclear weapons, ethnic tensions, Taliban sympathizers and Osama bin Laden in residence, is chilling.


Pakistan's underlying economic weaknesses and the global financial crisis have devastated the country. Between July and October, the rupee lost a quarter of its value. Foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to dangerously low levels. Pakistan has sought assistance from the International Monetary Fund in the $5 billion to $13 billion range to avoid defaulting on its debts.


President Asif Ali Zardari has yet to demonstrate the capacity to tackle Pakistan's toughest challenges. He lacks popular support to wage a campaign against the Taliban. He must carefully balance his country's strategic alliance with the United States and widespread public hostility to the U.S.


The dispute over Kashmir, a flash point since the partition of India in 1947, lingers.
The reach of the Taliban increasingly extends from the tribal areas into Pakistan and its cities.

In Pakistan's tribal areas, the Taliban and al-Qaida are a powerful force. The U.S. response thus far has been increased cross-border military action into the tribal areas.


The U.S. needs a comprehensive plan to promote stability in the region with integrated security, political and economic components. Even then, the U.S. cannot achieve success and eliminate terrorist sanctuaries in the tribal areas without Pakistani help.


Kabul has opened low-level negotiations with pragmatic elements within the Taliban under Saudi Arabian auspices.


The U.S. should sharply expand and improve its commitment to Pakistan's economic development.


Finally, India remains Pakistan's national security obsession. To Islamabad, Afghanistan represents an opportunity to achieve "strategic depth" vis-à-vis India. The United States should support rapprochement and a settlement over Kashmir, while encouraging Pakistan to view its regional security challenges more broadly.


But, even with the right military, economic and political resources, the U.S. faces an enormous challenge, nation-building in a country of 170 million people. The United States needs a unity of effort in support of the Pakistani government, the Pakistani people and our own national security interests.

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