‘India to be third largest economy by 2050’

India will be the third largest economy in the world after China and United States by 2050, a U.S.-based internationally recognised foreign-policy think tank has said.

An article “The G20 in 2050”, carried in November bulletin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, “China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050. Their total GDP, in real U.S. dollar terms, will be over 70 per cent more than that of the other G20 countries combined.”

Other main findings include, China will become the world’s largest economy in 2032, and grow to be 20 per cent larger than the United States by 2050. Over the next forty years, nearly 60 per cent of G20 economic growth will come from Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Mexico alone.

The article was written by Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil. A Frenchman and former director of World Bank, Dadush is the director of the International Economics Programme at the Foundation, and Stancil is a Fellow at the Programme.

“In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly USD 60 trillion — the current world GDP—but the wide disparity in per capita GDP among these three will persist,” they noted.

India’s annual average GDP growth between 2009-2050 is predicted to 6.19 per cent, and these emerging markets will not rise among the world’s richest countries in per capita terms — their average income in 2050 will still be 40 per cent below that of the G7 nations presently.

The experts also find that out of the G20 countries, “India is predicted to grow most rapidly, but its current modest size will prevent it from surpassing either China or the United States in real US dollar terms.”

PPP GDP in these four countries will be less than half of that in India and less than one-fourth of that in China, the report finds.