Once Afghanistan is pacified, al Qaeda eliminated from this area and the US forces out of Afghanistan; Pakistan will remain in the US calculation only as a nuclear armed country capable of considerable mischief

I rarely write about US-Pakistani relations. The reason is that I have difficulty in being objective about either country. My problem, as I have said before, is summed up in the refrain from a song made famous by Mary MacGregor in the 70s, “Torn between two lovers, feelin’ like a fool. Loving both of you is breakin’ all the rules.”When things seem to look up between the US and Pakistan, I do get a bit excited but sadly not for too long. The relationship between these two countries is rarely based on mutual respect. Almost always it is a matter of mutual need and unfortunately for Pakistan it needs the US more often than the other way around.It all really started when in 1953 Bogra, our man in DC, was brought back to become prime minister of Pakistan. It was about getting US aid, wheat and money then, and in some way or the other that is what it is still all about. The US needed Pakistan to become a part of US-led anti-communist alliances that encircled the USSR. And Pakistan was quite happy to oblige in return for financial and military largesse. A Faustian bargain?My awakening to the world of international politics happened 50 years ago during the U-2 crisis. For those that might not know or do not remember, U-2, a US spy plane piloted by Gary Powers flew from the US air base in Pakistan at Badaber and while over the USSR was shot down and the pilot captured.This created a major international incident but for me it all became relevant when Nikita Khrushchev, the leader of the USSR, announced that he had put a red circle around Peshawar. Meaning of course that Pakistan was going to be a target in any future nuclear war. For many months after that announcement I would have nightmares about a nuclear explosion that would destroy us all. Today this might seem quaint but at that time it seemed real enough.During the India-Pakistan war in 1965 it became clear that the US was not going to help Pakistan out in any local conflict. Clearly for the US, Pakistan was an expendable ally and sadly that is the way it is and will always be. Yes, the famous ‘tilt’ by US president Richard Nixon towards Pakistan during the 1971 war between India and Pakistan probably prevented India from taking over ‘Azad Kashmir’; clearly a big deal but that was about it.Recent history of bilateral relations between these two countries has revolved around Afghanistan. First the Reagan-Ziaul Haq collaboration in defeating the USSR forces in Afghanistan, then the Bush-Musharraf collaboration in getting rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan and now the Obama Af-Pak strategy against the resurgent Taliban.The question then is, what does Pakistan need the US for and does the US need Pakistan for anything besides the help it gives in controlling the Taliban in Afghanistan? Obviously as long as the Pakistani economy is in the doldrums and the Pakistan Army continues its fight against the extremists, Pakistan will need the US both for financial and military aid.As far as the US is concerned, ‘summits’ and recent US pronouncements notwithstanding, Pakistan but for its role as a safe haven for al Qaeda and a refuge for the Taliban fighting against the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan is of no interest to the US. Once Afghanistan is pacified, al Qaeda eliminated from this area and the US forces out of Afghanistan; Pakistan will remain in the US calculation only as a nuclear armed country capable of considerable mischief.From the Pakistani perspective this is however a great opportunity. What Pakistan needs most at this time is help in putting its economic house in order and the US seems willing to do so. And that is the best part of the scenario. Pakistan is under a democratic dispensation and not a military dictator whose only concern is in prolonging his personal rule and getting money to support the corporate interests of his constituency — the Pakistan Army.What Pakistan can demand from the US for its support in the Af-Pak scenario are three things besides night vision goggles. First, direct aid to end its problem with the ‘circular’ debt that is crippling power production. Second, aid to set up new power production and third, to open up US markets to Pakistani textile products. If Pakistan can get that help now, it will put the Pakistani economy back on its feet.Obviously what Pakistan needs right now is not more F-16s but more power generation. And that is the conundrum facing the Pakistani ‘establishment’ at this time. Surely the establishment must realise that it cannot survive if the country that pays for it is no longer a viable economic entity. If the establishment accepts this idea, then Pakistan will not only grow as a functioning democracy but will also have a decent chance of becoming economically independent and stop being subservient to the US and international donor agencies.The US also expects something from Pakistan beyond the Af-Pak scenario if it is to continue its support. First and foremost, Pakistan must control the extremist impulse within the country that makes it a base for terrorism against its neighbours and even the US. Second, Pakistan must convince the world that its nuclear facilities are safe and will never fall into the hands of the extremists.Finally, the US expects that Pakistan will become a viable member of the international economic community that minds its own business, does not export terrorism and definitely does not interfere in its neighbours’ affairs. This is going to be the biggest challenge for the Pakistani establishment. Old habits die hard!And no, the US and Pakistan never were and never will be ‘natural’ allies because as a ‘people’ they have nothing in common.

Syed Mansoor Hussain has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com