US a bit player in South Asia terror war? Analysis: Nathaniel Sheppard Jr.
Monday, 13 June 2011
Pakistan's Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani (R) and Afghan President Hamid Karzai shake hands after a joint news conference at the prime minister's residence in Islamabad. (File Photo)
Now that Pakistan and Afghanistan are mending fences as relations between both countries and the US head for the rocks, a significant shift may be in the making for their war against Al Qaeda, Taliban and other insurgents, and the United States may find itself playing a lesser role.
Despite ethnic, linguistic, cultural, trade and religious ties, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been at odds for decades over a host of political issues, such as boundaries and support of terrorists in each other’s territory. Pakistan was one of three countries to recognize the Taliban government after it seized power in Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Afghanistan, in turn, has allowed terrorists attacking Pakistan to operate from safe havens within the country.
Despite ethnic, linguistic, cultural, trade and religious ties, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been at odds for decades over a host of political issues, such as boundaries and support of terrorists in each other’s territory. Pakistan was one of three countries to recognize the Taliban government after it seized power in Afghanistan in the late 1990s. Afghanistan, in turn, has allowed terrorists attacking Pakistan to operate from safe havens within the country.
On Sunday, following a two-day visit by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the two nations announced that they had signed a 23-point “Islamabad Declaration,” setting fourth an ambitious agenda for improving bilateral relations in a wide range of areas, including national defense.
The two countries agreed to improve cooperation in commerce and trade, energy and infrastructure, to facilitate personal contacts and to establish a joint commission to promote reconciliation and peace in Afghanistan, according to local news reports. A rail link between parts of the country and the creation of economic and industrial zones also were part of the accord.
The declaration was said to have been signed by Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and Zalmai Rassoul her Afghan counterpart.
Catalysts for the meeting included the secret May 2 attack in Pakistan in which US Navy SEALS killed Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, the upcoming pullout of US troops in Afghanistan and the controversial use of deadly unmanned drone aircraft by the US in both countries.
Afghan and Pakistani leaders have bristled in recent months over civilian deaths caused by errant missiles fired from drone aircraft the US sees as critical to its efforts to uproot insurgents from remote areas of both countries. Both warned the US on their continued use. Mr. Karzai said last week that the US was beginning to look like an occupying force in his country.
Bowing to intense public pressure and still smarting from embarrassment and ridicule over the Bin Laden attack which it knew nothing about until it was almost over, Pakistan asked the US to reduce its military footprint in the country. The country has been hit by several deadly retaliatory attacks since then as insurgents stepped up their attacks.
Terrorists have killed more than 4,400 people in Pakistan, many civilians, since 2007. Since May, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device inside a restaurant in the Bajaur tribal region killing five people; another suicide bomber killed 27 people in an attack at police station in the northwestern city of Hangu; and there was an 18-hour siege of a naval base in the south of the country. Yesterday, twin blasts tore through a crowded open market in northwestern Peshawar, killing 35 people.
Local commentators alleged that the siege of the naval base resulted from a US plan to destabilize and gain control over the country, raising anti-American sentiment. The new accord is a great face saving move for battered Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and President Karzai as well.
The US previously announced that it would begin to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan later this year after a 10-year campaign to rout the Taliban and Al Qaeda. US, British and Afghan Northern Alliance forces invaded the country in 2001 in response to Al Qaeda’s September 11 attack on the US, in which close to 3,000 people were killed. The Taliban government was ousted and Taliban rebels retreated to remote mountain areas from which they have mounted attacks.
Pakistan and Afghanistan appear to have concluded they must take the lead in fighting their own demons to shake the image of being US lackeys willing to accept the deaths of civilians as collateral damage in the war on terrorism. They may be willing to forego the large sums of US aid US military presence in the region to create an appearance that they have manned up and taken charge of their destinies.
They just might be able to pull it off with the help of China, which is looking for ways to further exert its influence in the region. Whether China will pay to play with billions of dollars in long-term aid remains to be seen.
Pakistan and China have enjoyed good bilateral relations since 1950 when Pakistan became one of the first nations to break with Taiwan and recognize the People’s Republic of China. China is major supplier of weapons to Pakistan and is right in the neighborhood. It also funds numerous development projects.
As US-Pakistani and Afghanistan relations have headed toward the rocks, China has stepped in. It was quick to condemn as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty the attack in which Bin Laden was killed.
Last month, China said it would step up delivery of 50 fighter jets to Pakistan. In return, Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani publicly and effusively called China “a true friend and a time-tested and all-weather friend.”
China also is weighing a request by Pakistan that it should build a naval base at the southwestern port of Gwadar, which would give the Asian giant a fulltime naval presence and strategic base of operations in the region.
China also would have to up its involvement in Afghanistan for the new ambitions of Pakistan and Afghanistan to work. It showed little interest in Afghanistan whatsoever until 2007 when it launched a $3.5 billion effort to develop Afghanistan’s Aynak copper field, believed to be the largest undeveloped field in the world.
The project includes construction of a $500 million electrical plant and railway from Tajikistan to Pakistan to support exploration and may create as many as 10,000 jobs and $400 million of royalties—nothing to sneeze at by a country with a budget of $1 billion and expenditures three times that amount.
As the US goes away, taking most of its money with it, China would have to do more which it may now be willing to do, already having expanded its presence and influence in neighboring Pakistan, Siberia, Central and Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan and Pakistan have cover to posture. “Twins are as we are, the suffering is the same and the joy will be the same,” Mr. Karzai said Friday. “The struggle (against terror) is the struggle of all and the victory will be in the interests of all.”
(Nathaniel Sheppard Jr. is a veteran correspondent who has worked with The Chicago Tribune and The New York Times. He can be reached at: natsheppard@gmail.com)
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