Pakistan On the Brink Post-Bhutto Assassination

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto comes at a terrible time for Pakistan, not least given the country was already lurching towards increasing instability. And for the Bush Administration which had pinned its hopes for greater democratization and stability in Pakistan on an unlikely alliance between General Musharraf and Bhutto--it's high time to go back to the drawing board.

What is also clear is that Pakistan is in desperate need of some measure of stability, as greater chaos will only serve to continue to strengthen Islamist radicals ( including al-Qaeda, who as Bob Gates recently put it has increasingly of late "turned its face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and Pakistan people." )

Whatever happens, however, the army will remain the most important force in the Pakistani state, and a key factor in every future Pakistani administration. And as long as the army sticks together, it will fight successfully to prevent both Islamist revolution and ethnic secession. Only if the army splits will Pakistan be in danger of disintegration.