Pakistan looks to China as ties with US undergo strain

JUST when Pakistan’s relations with the United States are being strained, its president looks East to China. That, at least, has been how Asif Ali Zardari’s trip to Beijing this week has been portrayed by the Western media.

But Pakistan has been an ally of China for far longer than the present tiff between Islamabad and Washington over indiscriminate US attacks on Pakistani soil against al-Qaeda suspects. For decades, Pakistan and China have regarded each other as a strategic counter to their common neighbour and perceived rival, India.

And so what might seem like a political triangle in Zardari’s trip is actually part of an evolving quadrilateral. The China-Pakistan alliance predates current US attempts to use India as a buffer in an encirclement policy of a rising China, more so the current hiccup in US-Pakistan relations.
Nonetheless, the US role on both levels has added to a sense of estrangement in South Asia. The perceived rise of India has also raised the stakes, although diplomacy still prevails all-round.

Where might all this lead to?

It is far too early for Washington to lament any “loss” of Pakistan in the classic strategist’s zero-sum calculations, mainly because it never quite “won” it. While steadfastly unaligned, or multi-aligned, Pakistan never left China as a close neighbour and major source of military equipment.
Washington policy circles are currently abuzz over the content and direction of Pakistan’s new government, up to and including decoding Zardari. The present unsettling of bilateral relations only adds to the hum.

Yet in all of this, China is conspicuously absent. The United States needs no help from anyone in seeing its relations with Pakistan plummet, given how US forces continue to bomb and shoot their way through Pakistani villages bordering Afghanistan.
In reading Islamabad however, US officials would be taken by Zardari’s Beijing visit at this particular time. The trip that began yesterday can be interpreted on both symbolic and substantive levels.

Symbolically it is Zardari’s first foreign visit as president, and taken at a time of declining ties with the United States.

Although Pakistani diplomats play down this aspect by citing how China has long been a new Pakistan president’s first foreign destination, talks are also expected to centre on a new nuclear deal to mirror the US-India nuclear agreement.

More substantively, Zardari’s four-day trip is more than an extended courtesy call since talks will cover a wide range of issues. No less than six key ministries or government agencies number in the entourage, from finance and the interior (home ministry) to defence and foreign affairs.

Bilateral trade in the first three quarters of this year alone more than tripled to US$7bil (RM24.5bil) compared to the whole of 2002. Both sides are optimistic enough to cite a target of US$15bil (RM52.5bil) by just 2010.

A joint declaration is expected to be announced at the conclusion of talks on Friday. Both China and Pakistan are poised to take their already strong ties to an even higher level, and here the United States could be conspicuous by its absence.