Al Qaeda focus India ?
In Varanasi a bomb went off killing a one year old child. LeT’s Indian wing claimed responsibility. In the future India will see a lot more suicide attacks and IEDs.
They have wreaked havoc in Pakistan and they would only love to see it targeted towards India rather than themselves. If an Islamic insurgency can be started inside India that will help trigger violence against Muslims and the entire focus can then be shifted towards India.
Pakistan does not have much money to sponsor everything. But Jihad will continue for the warped minds to feed their frenzy. Ordinary Pakistanis might breathe a sigh of relief as all bearded Kalashnikov Mullahs will shift into India. This is a likely scenario.
However, things have not reached a conclusive point in Afghanistan yet. Al Qaeda might try to intensify the conflict that can turn Pakistan against the US. If things become clear that a settlement is being reached to isolate Al Qaeda and drive it off its safe havens in Pakistan, then Al Qaeda will turn around and try to take Pakistan over. It has enough sympathizers and helpers deep into Pakistan. They will do it in a violent way. So far they have desisted taking on Pakistani army. But their attempt will be to get someone in charge who is somewhat radicalized and sympathetic to Al Qaeda. There is a 50% chance that this might happen.
However, things have not reached a conclusive point in Afghanistan yet. Al Qaeda might try to intensify the conflict that can turn Pakistan against the US. If things become clear that a settlement is being reached to isolate Al Qaeda and drive it off its safe havens in Pakistan, then Al Qaeda will turn around and try to take Pakistan over. It has enough sympathizers and helpers deep into Pakistan. They will do it in a violent way. So far they have desisted taking on Pakistani army. But their attempt will be to get someone in charge who is somewhat radicalized and sympathetic to Al Qaeda. There is a 50% chance that this might happen.
If Pakistani army decides to save itself and goes all out against Al Qaeda, then things might take a dangerous turn for them. The Haqqanis, hekmatyars and many Al Qaeda sympathizers might turn against Pakistan’s military men aligned with the West. They will try to drive a wedge into the middle of Pakistan’s military turning it into a radicals versus moderate tussle. By creating more chaos inside Pakistan, they will try to frustrate the public and turn them against the moderates. Many assassinations will happen. Al Qaeda will try to get its position inside Pakistan strengthened first before derailing other plans. If they gain, Pakistanis will jump ship and align themselves with them.
A lot depends upon what the Pakistan military is going to do. If they agree to a deal with the West on the condition that Al Qaeda gets evicted, they might face the full brunt of this terrorist organization. Many off shoots of Pak Army’s non-state-actor wings might join Al Qaeda. Some of the Pak generals like Kayani will be accused of being Western sympathizers.
Or Pakistan army might promise safe havens and passage to Al Qaeda on one side while working with the West at the same time until the peace deal is signed. Al Qaeda might be told that the first attempt must be to get the Western forces reduced considerably in the region and the long term goals against India. This is the third scenario.
India will see attacks increase in 2011. But we might have to tough it out. I won’t be surprised if Khalistan movement resumes. India will need to be warmed up and chaos escalated there to provide cover for Al Qaeda.
Attacks in India will escalate because of the above scenarios. We just have to face it and deal with it. There is no use waiting for them to strike. A war with India will do a lot of good for the demoralized Jihadi spirit. And they have been itching for it. We have faced terrorism before. We just need to build on that experience. Bangalore will be targeted this time.
A lot depends upon what the Pakistan military is going to do. If they agree to a deal with the West on the condition that Al Qaeda gets evicted, they might face the full brunt of this terrorist organization. Many off shoots of Pak Army’s non-state-actor wings might join Al Qaeda. Some of the Pak generals like Kayani will be accused of being Western sympathizers.
Or Pakistan army might promise safe havens and passage to Al Qaeda on one side while working with the West at the same time until the peace deal is signed. Al Qaeda might be told that the first attempt must be to get the Western forces reduced considerably in the region and the long term goals against India. This is the third scenario.
India will see attacks increase in 2011. But we might have to tough it out. I won’t be surprised if Khalistan movement resumes. India will need to be warmed up and chaos escalated there to provide cover for Al Qaeda.
Attacks in India will escalate because of the above scenarios. We just have to face it and deal with it. There is no use waiting for them to strike. A war with India will do a lot of good for the demoralized Jihadi spirit. And they have been itching for it. We have faced terrorism before. We just need to build on that experience. Bangalore will be targeted this time.
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