With 7 Billion People, Facts Are No Longer Optional
Making data and analysis tools available to all takes the rhetoric out of decision making.
Almost half of the population of Pakistan is under the age of 19. Think about that for a moment; what would life be like here, if half the people in this country were under 20? When you dig deeper into Pakistan’s numbers you see that only 21%, so 1 in 5, of their 42 million young people is enrolled in secondary education. And of these, only 43% are girls. Certain patterns begin to take shape when you now overlay economic impact data onto this education data. You see, for example, that each year of secondary schooling increases girls’ future wages by 10 to 20 percent. This compares positively to the 5 to 15 percent increase that an extra year of schooling gives the boys. So the facts are very clear; Pakistan needs to invest in girls’ education to support the economic well-being of the country. No rhetoric required – an analysis of the numbers shows which way to go.
Until recently a fact-based analysis of these numbers would have taken months of pulling data from spreadsheets from hundreds of schools, departments and government agencies. It would have been complicated and costly. Today, thanks to newly created interactive population dashboards that SAP designed and built for the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) using UN data from multiple agencies, anyone can access, interact, click around and overlay this information. The data and – even more significantly – a tool to analyze it, are now in the hands of the people, not just for Pakistan, but for countries across the globe.
Tools of this nature will become more prevalent in the coming years. In the age of Google and Facebook, transparency and crowd-sourced knowledge will win the day. As a matter of fact, they may be the only way that we can continuously improve a world of 7 billion people and more. How will we manage our finite resources? How will we ensure a continuous increase in the global standard of living, not only for the few at the top, but also for the many working to get there? Today, more than three billion people still live on less than $2.50 a day and at least 80% of the world’s population lives on less than $10 a day – hardly a sustainable model. The availability of data along with the tools to analyze it will help the world run better and, ultimately, improve people’s lives.
The key force behind population momentum can be achieved if the average age at which women begin childbearing rises (by delaying the first birth) and through wider spacing between births. Increasing the average age at childbearing by five years could reduce future population size by 20 percent.
But young women in Pakistan often have little choice about when or whom to marry, and whether to defer childbearing. The early onset of fertility and the close spacing of births present health risks to young women, limits their education and livelihood possibilities. The longer girls stay in school, the later they marry and the greater the power in a marriage to delay or space childbearing. Delaying the onset of childbearing will significantly impact their lives.
Pakistan is at a critical juncture in its demographic transition. After decades of very rapid population growth, the prospect of slower growth lies ahead because fertility is declining. But the timing and extent of further fertility declines is critical for Pakistan’s future. The population projected for 2050 may reach 395 million if no further fertility decline occurs and could be much lower at 266 million if fertility decline is rapid. The call for action to expedite the fertility transition is now.
The writers are the Vice President and Distinguished Scholar, Population Council, New York, Country Director and Director Research at the Population Council, Islamabad
Making data and analysis tools available to all takes the rhetoric out of decision making.
Almost half of the population of Pakistan is under the age of 19. Think about that for a moment; what would life be like here, if half the people in this country were under 20? When you dig deeper into Pakistan’s numbers you see that only 21%, so 1 in 5, of their 42 million young people is enrolled in secondary education. And of these, only 43% are girls. Certain patterns begin to take shape when you now overlay economic impact data onto this education data. You see, for example, that each year of secondary schooling increases girls’ future wages by 10 to 20 percent. This compares positively to the 5 to 15 percent increase that an extra year of schooling gives the boys. So the facts are very clear; Pakistan needs to invest in girls’ education to support the economic well-being of the country. No rhetoric required – an analysis of the numbers shows which way to go.
Until recently a fact-based analysis of these numbers would have taken months of pulling data from spreadsheets from hundreds of schools, departments and government agencies. It would have been complicated and costly. Today, thanks to newly created interactive population dashboards that SAP designed and built for the UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) using UN data from multiple agencies, anyone can access, interact, click around and overlay this information. The data and – even more significantly – a tool to analyze it, are now in the hands of the people, not just for Pakistan, but for countries across the globe.
Tools of this nature will become more prevalent in the coming years. In the age of Google and Facebook, transparency and crowd-sourced knowledge will win the day. As a matter of fact, they may be the only way that we can continuously improve a world of 7 billion people and more. How will we manage our finite resources? How will we ensure a continuous increase in the global standard of living, not only for the few at the top, but also for the many working to get there? Today, more than three billion people still live on less than $2.50 a day and at least 80% of the world’s population lives on less than $10 a day – hardly a sustainable model. The availability of data along with the tools to analyze it will help the world run better and, ultimately, improve people’s lives.
The key force behind population momentum can be achieved if the average age at which women begin childbearing rises (by delaying the first birth) and through wider spacing between births. Increasing the average age at childbearing by five years could reduce future population size by 20 percent.
But young women in Pakistan often have little choice about when or whom to marry, and whether to defer childbearing. The early onset of fertility and the close spacing of births present health risks to young women, limits their education and livelihood possibilities. The longer girls stay in school, the later they marry and the greater the power in a marriage to delay or space childbearing. Delaying the onset of childbearing will significantly impact their lives.
Pakistan is at a critical juncture in its demographic transition. After decades of very rapid population growth, the prospect of slower growth lies ahead because fertility is declining. But the timing and extent of further fertility declines is critical for Pakistan’s future. The population projected for 2050 may reach 395 million if no further fertility decline occurs and could be much lower at 266 million if fertility decline is rapid. The call for action to expedite the fertility transition is now.
The writers are the Vice President and Distinguished Scholar, Population Council, New York, Country Director and Director Research at the Population Council, Islamabad
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