Monday, April 21, 2008

Economics: Is India shining?





How Poor is India?
The IT boom affect about 6 million people only

India Inc. and Bollywood apply pandolsian gloss over their penury, hide the slums, cover the destitute and portray India as a modern state. Nothing could be farther than the truth.
Some startling statistics have just been released by a forgotten wing of Dr Singh’s own administration, the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector.

Around 80 per cent of India’s working population is in this sector. Nearly 80 per cent of this group earns less than 20 rupees a day and 85 per cent of this sub group is trapped in debt. By that usual sleight of hand we have drawn an arbitrary line to define poverty: Rs 12 a day constitutes the poverty line.

This encourages the illusion that 77 per cent of India is now above the poverty line. It isn’t that much above in any case. Nor is this poverty line index-linked to inflation. Twelve rupees a day buys much less today than it did three years ago. The traditional poverty groups remain where they were: 88 per cent of Scheduled Tribes and Castes, 80 per cent of “Other Backward Classes” and 85 per cent of Muslims belong to the “poor and vulnerable” class.M. J. Akbar is Editor-in-Chief of the Asian Age and Deccan Chronicle newspapers. He can be reached at
mjakbar@asianage.com http://www.khaleejtimes.com/ColumnistHomeNew.asp?section=mjakbar&col=yes

The other point of view

GDP
growth is estimated at a stunning 8 percent-plus.
Foreign exchange reserves are at over
$103 billion.
The
stockmarket is going through the roof.
Check out the mushrooming
malls, improving telecom connectivity, booming industry.
A great
monsoon last year has heralded greater growth.
The government has ambitious plans to link rivers, to build superhighways -- both concrete and wireless, criss-crossing the nation.
A South Asia Free Trade Agreement has been created.
Plus radical economic and strategic pacts with the United States, the European Union, and Southeast Asia.
There is no better time to be an Indian, declares Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
The nationwide media blitz --
India Shining -- would have us believe that we are now looking at a resurgent India, an economic and military powerhouse striding firmly towards its rightful place in the world.
But there are many who disagree.
Global corporations cite corruption, red tape, high inflation, poor laws and an
infirm infrastructure as reasons for their not wishing to invest in India.
Opposition�parties call it a pre-election gimmick.
Economists say many�million�Indians still do not have access to potable water, electricity, decent housing or even good roads.
And literacy rates are appalling.
Foreign policy pundits compare India unfavourably with
China's phenomenal rate of growth and environmentalists point to the growing ecological ravages due to unchecked industrial growth.
Is India really
shining?
Why do you think so?
Do you think the 'feel good' factor sweeping India is more imaginary than real?
What does India need to do to become an economic superpower?


India's Middle Class Failure

India's 200m-strong middle class is the most economically dynamic group on the planet, but is largely uninterested in politics or social reform. Until it begins to engage politically, India will suffer from a lop-sided modernisation.
Chakravarthi Ram-Prasad in Prospect:
As the actual Mother India celebrates the 60th anniversary of her independence, there is....both surging optimism and crushing despair about her future. As the saying goes, everything and its opposite is true in India. The seven Indian Institutes of Technology rank near the top of global surveys, and job offers to graduates from the Indian Institutes of Management rival those to graduates of the famous US business schools; yet a third of the country is still illiterate. Three hundred million Indians live on less than $1 a day—a quarter of the world's utterly poor—yet since 1985, more than 400m (out of a total population of 1bn) have risen out of relative poverty—to $5 a day—and another 300m will follow over the next two decades if the economy continues to grow at over 7 per cent a year. Population growth, even at a slower pace, will mean that there will still be millions below the poverty line, but the fall in number will be steady. At the other end of the scale, India has the largest number of dollar billionaires outside the US and Russia.

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